大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化     

张昭栋  刘章增  赵会蓬 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):51-55

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化  相似文献   

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘明  熊彩霞  马金荣 《地球科学与环境学报》2002,24(4):38-41

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。  相似文献   

Biostratigraphic and aminostratigraphic constraints on the age of the Middle Pleistocene glacial succession in north Norfolk,UK     

Richard C. Preece  Simon A. Parfitt  G. Russell Coope  Kirsty E. H. Penkman  Philippe Ponel  John E. Whittaker 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(6):557-580

Considerable debate surrounds the age of the Middle Pleistocene glacial succession in East Anglia following some recent stratigraphical reinterpretations. Resolution of the stratigraphy here is important since it not only concerns the glacial history of the region but also has a bearing on our understanding of the earliest human occupation of north‐western Europe. The orthodox consensus that all the tills were emplaced during the Anglian (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12) has recently been challenged by a view assigning each major till to a different glacial stage, before, during and after MIS 12. Between Trimingham and Sidestrand on the north Norfolk coast, datable organic sediments occur immediately below and above the glacial succession. The oldest glacial deposit (Happisburgh Till) directly overlies the ‘Sidestrand Unio‐bed’, here defined as the Sidestrand Hall Member of the Cromer Forest‐bed Formation. Dating of these sediments therefore has a bearing on the maximum age of the glacial sequence. This paper reviews the palaeobotany and describes the faunal assemblages recovered from the Sidestrand Unio‐bed, which accumulated in a fluvial environment in a fully temperate climate with regional deciduous woodland. There are indications from the ostracods for weakly brackish conditions. Significant differences are apparent between the Sidestrand assemblages and those from West Runton, the type site of the Cromerian Stage. These differences do not result from contrasting facies or taphonomy but reflect warmer palaeotemperatures at Sidestrand and a much younger age. This conclusion is suggested by the higher proportion of thermophiles at Sidestrand and the occurrence of a water vole with unrooted molars (Arvicola) rather than its ancestor Mimomys savini with rooted molars. Amino acid racemisation data also indicate that Sidestrand is significantly younger than West Runton. These data further highlight the stratigraphical complexity of the ‘Cromerian Complex’ and support the conventional view that the Happisburgh Till was emplaced during the Anglian rather than the recently advanced view that it dates from MIS 16. Moreover, new evidence from the Trimingham lake bed (Sidestrand Cliff Formation) above the youngest glacial outwash sediments (Briton's Lane Formation) indicates that they also accumulated during a Middle Pleistocene interglacial – probably MIS 11. All of this evidence is consistent with a short chronology placing the glacial deposits within MIS 12, rather than invoking multiple episodes of glaciation envisaged in the ‘new glacial stratigraphy’ during MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

疏散星团NGC6530天区的恒星自行和成员概率     

温文  赵君亮陈力 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2005,(1):79-94

利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1．09mas/a。  相似文献   

概率图解法软件研制及其在东升庙矿床研究中的应用     

王琳  彭润民  韩雪峰  林美春 《地质与勘探》2008,44(1):89-93

文章根据概率图解法原理,利用VB可视化编程技术,完成了概率图筛分软件的研制.并通过该软件对东升庙矿床矿石品位混合总体进行筛分处理,探究其成矿期次信息.已有研究结果表明:一次成矿作用形成的矿床,其矿石品位的累积概率图是一条直线.而东升庙矿床的8条代表性勘探线中4种主要成矿元素TS、An、Pb、Cu品位的累积概率图均为曲线且出现明显拐点,经多次作图检验证实有效拐点数为1,由此得到新的成矿期次信息,揭示该矿床经历了两期成矿作用,即中元古代同沉积-海底喷气矿化期和后生改造矿化期,这对于研究其成矿物质来源和成矿机理具有重要的意义.  相似文献   

P-III分布参数的概率权重矩法S函数计算   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

宋松柏 《水文》2008,28(5)

概率权重矩法是一种估计统计分布参数的方法.本文根据不完全Γ函数在无限区间积分,推导了P-Ⅲ分布参数的S函数的计算公式.通过现有计算公式比较,其计算结果具有较高的计算精度,避免了的大量的数值积分计算.文中公式只要借助于计算编程进行求解,给定超几何函数项一定的截断误差,其运算具有较高的运行速度.文中计算公式是一种P-Ⅲ分布参数S函数的计算途径.  相似文献   

川西前陆盆地中—新生代沉积迁移与构造转换   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

陈竹新 贾 东魏国齐  李本亮雷永良 《中国地质》2008,35(3):472-481

川西前陆盆地中—新生代各构造层的残余厚度展布和沉积特征分析发现,四川克拉通周缘的前陆盆地在晚三叠世时期发育于龙门山山前,明显属于龙门山褶皱逆冲构造载荷所形成的前渊凹陷;侏罗纪早期的沉积地层呈面状分布,没有表现出显著的挠曲沉降,指示了一个构造相对平静的阶段;中侏罗世早期前渊凹陷迁移至龙门山北段和米仓山山前,前渊沉积从晚三叠世的北东向转换为近东西向,广泛的湖泊相沉积预示了前陆盆地的欠充填状态;中侏罗世中晚期,川西盆地沉降中心又迁移到大巴山山前,相应的挠曲变形又从近东西向转化为北西向,构成了大巴山的前渊凹陷;晚侏罗世—早白垩世时期,沉降中心再次回到米仓山山前,巨厚的前渊凹陷沉积指示了米仓山冲断带的主要活动时期;白垩纪末—古近纪的前渊凹陷则跃迁至雅安—名山地区。川西前陆盆地的同造山沉降中心以四川盆地中心为核心在西部和北部呈弧形迁移,沉积序列不断更替和叠加。中生界各构造层底界构造图显示现今的构造低部位位于川西北地区和川西南地区,在川西北地区均有东西走向的等值线分布,而川西南地区等值线走向则为北东-南西向。因此分析认为,晚侏罗世至早白垩世的构造变形可能控制了川西盆地现今的地层变形,形成了川西北地区的南北向构造挤压结构,而晚期的新生代构造变形则主要体现在川西盆地的西南部,形成北东-南西向的地层展布特征。  相似文献   

海浪的条件特征周期     

徐德伦  刘学海  张军 《海洋学报》2001,23(3):1-7

在海浪波面高度为正态分布的假定下,导出一种以给定波高为条件的条件周期概率密度函数.与风浪槽中测量数据比较,结果表明,在窄谱情况下此概率密度函数与实验室风浪的实际符合良好.根据此密度函数定义了3种条件特征周期,并导出它们与平均周期的关系式.根据这些关系对有关海洋工程上的一些问题作了解释和讨论.  相似文献   

A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures     

李典庆  张圣坤  唐文勇 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…  相似文献   

Dynamic properties of green water event in the overtopping of extreme waves on a fixed dock     

Nobuhito Mori  Daniel T. Cox 《Ocean Engineering》2003,30(16):2021-2052

A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values.  相似文献